(16 October, 2023 – EPC, European Policy Centre)
Speakers:
- Maria Skóra, Research Associate, Institut für Europäische Politik;
- Monika Sus, Associate Professor of Political Science, Polish Academy of Sciences;
- Tomasz Bielecki, EU and NATO correspondent, Deutsche Welle Polish Section and Gazeta Wyborcza.
Moderator:
- Teona Lavrelashvili, Policy Analyst & Coordinator of the EPC Task Force on the Future of EU Enlargement.
Teona Lavrelashvili commenced by bringing to our attention that the recent elections in Poland, analysed during the event is considered by many being one of the most crucial since the fall of communism, with innumerous consequences for the future of the European Union. With the war raising in Ukraine and other crises, the world has been closely monitored by both Washington and Brussels.
During its two terms, the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) in Poland developed tensions with Brussels, primarily due to controversial reforms that led to the the EU freezing the funds as a solution. According to the exit polls, Poland’s opposition parties appear to have secured a solid victory, signaling a potential shift in both Poland and the European Union. The exit polls, which have a margin of error of around two percentage points, were release immediately after 9 pm, on Sunday, 15th of October 2023.
Exit poll data prognosed the Law and Justice (PiS) Party securing 36,6% support, followed by the centrist Civic Coalition with 31.6%. The center-right Third Way is expected to receive 13%, the Left 8.6% and the far-right Confederation, which cooperates with the government to receive 6.4%. (The final official results were not considerably different – ed.) A controversial referendum was also held in Poland at the same time, but not enough people have participated to reach a valid result. The referendum included questions on the privatization of state-owned enterprises, increase in the retirement age and the admission of immigrants under an EU relocation mechanism, similar to the one held in Hungary in 2016 (without any actual EU relocation mechanism or anything like that being in existence).
Reflections on the preliminary results of the Polish Elections:
Maria Skóra began by giving prominence to an intriguing historical fact: during the first free elections in Poland in 1989 after the fall of communism, the voter turnout was not as high as in the recent elections. More people went to vote against the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in the recent elections than did against communism in 1989. Many women and young people voted which proved the resilience and strength of democracy. She expressed her opinion that it means a quality change in the government. The outcome of the elections will likely lead to be a breakthrough moment.
Monika Sus emphasized that this is a historic moment for Poland. However, she cautioned that these are only preliminary results and reminded the audience that exit polls have been inaccurate in the past. Final results were expected on the 17th of October. (The final official results were not considerably different – ed.) She highlighted the success of various non-governmental organizations, academic institutions, and private individuals in mobilizing voters, leading to an increased turnout.
The right to designate a government or a prime minister is in the hands of the Polish President. As is well known, he will give huge support to the Law and Justice Party (PiS), however their chances in the Parliament are uncertain. The opposition may also choose to create a three-party coalition to have the majority of votes in the Parliament.
One thing that seems certain is the desire for a coalition with the Civic Platform, though it may take some weeks or months to finalize this. Nonetheless, Maria Skóra believes that a coalition government will eventually emerge.
Tomasz Bielecki started by expressing optimism about the accuracy of the exit polls which have been reliable over the past two decades. Mr. Bielecki mentioned that these elections were not just about single policies but focused on the basic principles of democratic governance, rule of law and accountability. He affirmed that the question of what policies to expect from a coalition government is complex, given the need to address these fundamental principles.
Mr. Bielecki underlined that “these elections were the last call for Polish labor on democracy”. The Law and Justice Party (PiS) led by Jarosław Kaczyński had a very polarized campaign, they were very focused in Donald Tusk personally, but the polarization strategy seems to have failed, and the democratic opposition appear to have a majority, according to the exit polls.
The relationship between Poland and Ukraine has been difficult, especially since the war in Ukraine started, and Mr. Bielecki expressed his concern about the opposition possibly continue using anti-Ukrainian sentiments to gain votes.
Concerning the impact of the election results, Monika Sus emphasized the aspects that have deteriorated during the previous government. She anticipates substantial reforms in these areas, particularly in domains such as the rule of law, human rights, media independence and accountability.
Monika Sus stated that the new government will aim to improve relations with the European Union, potentially supporting the EU’s enlargement process, including countries like Ukraine and Moldova. Poland’s position on the Green Deal and migration policy may see some changes, but the extent of these changes is uncertain. The role of the Polish President in signing and vetoing legal acts will also have a significance on the government’s ability to enact reforms.
Overall, the elections have brought about significant changes in Poland, both in terms of domestic policies and international relations. The next steps will be closely watched.
What “Brussels” should expect:
Maria Skóra emphasized that despite the anti-Europe propaganda, Polish people are still pro-European. Despite the efforts to promote anti-European sentiment, the majority of the population remains pro-European, which is a positive development and a good starting point to rekindle relations with “Brussels”.
Monika Sus suggested that these elections demonstrate that there is hope for European democracy, and it is essential not to give up. This will most likely help the European Parliament to become a more democratic institution in 2024, preventing the rise of anti-liberal governments.
Tomasz Bielecki noted that the EU should expect the new Polish government to have more visibility, greater influence on various issues, and a more cooperative approach. This government will likely demand a say in EU reforms, funds, and Ukraine’s accession to the EU. The change in government should lead to a more constructive and engaged relationship with the EU.
Link to the Video Conference: https://epc.eu/en/past-events/Polish-elections~5403d0