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Uncertainty in Brexit negotiations put pressure on London

fromtone.com

Are borders a detrimental relic of the past, less and less useful in a globalized world? There is not a true answer, it depends from person to person and our own political and ideological leanings. But are all border created equal? My personal opinion is no, they are not.

While most of the talks regarding European borders have focused, in the last few years, on the migration crisis, its effects on Schengen and on external borders with Turkey and in the Mediterranean Sea, these are not the only sensitive issues when it comes to European borders.

In the light of the UK decision to leave the EU, old disputes resurfaced and none is tougher than what will happen to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland after March 2019.

There are examples of extra-EU countries which are part of Schengen, nominally Switzerland and Norway. Nevertheless, this solution seems ill-suited for the UK. First of all, neither the United Kingdom, nor Ireland are part of Schengen. Secondly, the position of Norway and Switzerland is something hard-brexiters are trying to avoid, since it would basically mean allowing for a soft-Brexit approach.

The real problem arises from the fact that Ireland and Britain are incredibly more linked to each other than to the rest of the Continent. Be that a result of geography or shared history, the fact remains that the tow island is one of the most integrated markets in the world. As former Tory MP George Osborn said in 2010 “We export more to Ireland than to Brazil, Russia, and China combined”. This was said in order to justify a 3,2 billion pounds loan to help Ireland, which at the time was suffering greatly of the recession. Just to give another example, the London-Dublin flight route is the second most trafficked in the world. This is especially mind-blowing if you consider that Dublin has a resident population of “merely” 500 thousand people. To this economic factors we must add the countless cultural similarities shared between the two nations as well as the fact that they both speak English and use the Common Law.

These are all good reason for both parties involved (three counting the EU) to resolve the issues posed by Brexit with as much care as possible. In a recent Speech in the plenary session in Strasbourg, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar expressed his absolute will not to dismantle the long-sought peace at the Irish border. Nevertheless, as I was hinting at the beginning, not every border is created equal. This one in particular, reflects a religious and cultural divide rather than an ethnic or geographical one. The balance reached by the “Good Friday Agreement” in 1998 is something everybody wants to preserve. The Unionist side argues that a solution that puts a hard border between the two Irish sides is preferable to one that puts it between the British Isles and since the DUP holds the government majority afloat, this opinion weights a lot. On the flip side, we have the Sinn Fein that, because of their ideological refusal to take the seats they won at Westminster and take part in the discussions in London, is unable to steer the conversation towards a deal that would benefit their part. This is especially true now that their presence alone in the Parliament would make the already shaky Tory majority even more precarious.

The best practical solution for the Republic of Ireland would be to have a soft border but as we have seen, regardless of the huge entanglement between the two nations, this is not an easy solution to obtain outside the European Union framework and especially in the midst of negotiations that are stirring up discontent for the perceived weakness of Theresa May against Brussels. So Ireland is paying a lot of attention to the final deal and, one must admit, the EU has been keeping Dublin opinion in high regard in each and every topic of the negotiations.

Recent developments put uncertainty on the fate of EU citizens after 2019, but it is definitely too early for either side to tell. What is sure is that everyone wants London to give his opinion more and to formulate a plan for the future, whatever that might be. Growing frustration from both internal opposition and Brussels is mounting on. It is perceived as the Government incapable of long-term planning, which puts the whole negotiating process at a risk. Right now we have very little insight on what Westminster is thinking because of the fear of having every little rumor exposed and distorted by the media. However the situation is, arguably, deteriorating to the point where silence is worst than the possible media storm, that would occur. One year has (almost) passed, one more to go. Time flies when you are having fun, doesn’t it?