The Atlantic Council’s event discussing the results of the 2023 Turkish election showed that it will hold important implications for the future of US-Turkey relations and Turkey’s transatlantic relationship. The reelection of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the continued dominance of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) suggest a continuation of the current political dynamics in Turkey.
1. Political Dynamics: The AKP’s victory solidifies President Erdoğan’s leadership and the party’s policy direction, which has at times diverged from US interests and values. The treatment of the election by Erdoğan and the AKP party has been described as free but not fair, as the government has used state apparatus and its control of the media to dominate and denigrate the opposition. This could lead to further challenges in the bilateral relationship, as Erdoğan’s assertive foreign policy stance and his government’s prioritisation of national interests are likely to not align with US expectations.
2. Security and Defence Cooperation: Defence and security cooperation between the US and Turkey may face challenges in light of the election results. Areas such as NATO partnership, counterterrorism efforts, and arms procurement could be influenced by Turkey’s evolving and unclear priorities. One area that is still concerning for the US and its relationship is Turkey’s neutrality in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Erdoğan recently pulling out of the European Political Community Summit in Moldova due to Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy’s attendance and call for more aid. It will be essential for both countries to engage in diplomatic dialogue to find common ground and address shared concerns effectively.
3. Economic Considerations: The election results may impact economic relations between the US and Turkey. Changes in Turkey’s business environment, investment climate, and policy directions could affect trade, investment, and energy cooperation. In a positive mood, Erdoğan has declared that he will appoint a new economic council composed of heads of business to bring down inflation; as well as making a more favourable environment for foreign investment. Promoting stability, transparency, and a better business environment signals that this will be a crucial area for fostering better ties between Turkey, the US, and European states.
4. Turkey’s Overall EU and Transatlantic Relationship: The election results will shape Turkey’s relationship with NATO and the European Union (EU), affecting its broader transatlantic ties. Turkey’s continued freeze on EU accession, regional cooperation and obligations, and defence commitments may undergo shifts. For example, Turkey’s blocking of Finland – and more saliently – Sweden’s accession to the EU; as well as Turkey’s purchase of arms from Russia has harmed trust in Turkey’s transatlantic relationship. This could have further implications for transatlantic cooperation and cohesion in the future.
In conclusion, the results of the 2023 Turkish election introduce potential challenges and opportunities for US-Turkey relations and Turkey’s transatlantic relationship. While there are signs that Erdoğan will more positively engage with the US and the West in order to foster a better economic environment, it is probable that domestically Erdoğan will continue to diverge and demonise the US and European countries in order to continue his appeal as a strong and competent defender of Turkey’s interests. Both countries will need to adapt to changing circumstances and find common ground to ensure a constructive and mutually beneficial relationship in the future.