Make Europe great again

Wishlist for 2018

I do not envy the journalists working for The Economist, who had to finish their 2018 prognosis articles by the end November so that it would be published the edition “World in 2018”. It must have been a mission impossible. Because even now, just a couple of days before the end of December, no one sees where Europe is going next year. However, there is a big chance to win the future-telling contest by betting on a scenario in which nothing fundamentally changes, despite the promising signs. Still, I am convinced, the reform of the Eurozone that they passionately push for is not the greatest question of next year.

The year 2018 has indeed the potential to become a unique window of opportunity for European decision-makers to kick in the motors for deeper integration. In his Sorbonne speech, French President Emmanuel Macron called for deeper integration in nearly every sphere of the EU. The European Commission has published a series of papers concerning the future of the EU. Martin Schulz, leader of the German social democrats, which are in a strong bargaining position, wants to see the United States of Europe by 2025.

In an ironic way, the most important player is at the same time the most uncertain one. “It’s an illusion to expect a German government to be formed before February”, said Bernd Hüttemann, the European Movement Germany’s Secretary General in late September at one of their events in Brussels. Those days, I felt he was too pessimistic. By now, I learnt that he was right. Europe is still waiting for Germany to find its heart and kick in the machine. But Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz seem to be stuck in catch 22. They need to deliver for their voters, while the whole continent is looking forward to their solution.

But despite the perceptions elaborated in Brussels and other European capitals, one should never forget that European affairs are not in the core of domestic political discourse. It is impossible to please the German voters to tell them that any more cent of their tax will be spent on further integration, including permanent redistribution to countries that notoriously disrespect the golden rule of fiscal discipline.

However, it seems quite possible that SPD and CDU will find some sort of compromise in the end. There is a great variation of options, ranging from a classic grand coalition to a CDU minority government, that would be supported by SPD on certain issues. The conservatives have always been reluctant on injecting more money in any form to the common European budget. Due to that, Schulz will have to be a super smart negotiator in order to trade his federal dreams for his party’s participation in the grand coalition. I really wish for 2018 that he would be able to do so.

At the other side of German-French axis, President Macron is not in an easy situation either. On the one hand, he can worry if his German counterparts would be willing to pay the bill of his pro-European stance. On the other hand, he still has to implement all those economic reforms that the country badly needs for decades. But in a land of “étatisme”, reducing the enormous public debt and modernising the labour market seems an incredibly cruel task. So, he really needs some success at the European or international sphere to counterbalance the French nation’s torn ego. I really wish for 2018 that he would find it.

EU institutions are also torn between different interests. There is an ever-growing tension between Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Council’s head Donald Tusk. The turf war’s last episode involved Jucker calling Tusk “anti-European” and his paper on EU immigration and asylum policy “unacceptable”. On the one hand, Juncker’s outrage is understandable because it’s the Commission’s task to prepare everything for smooth decision-making. But he should also understand that the refugee crisis has produced an unstoppable dispute among member states. Last week, the Commission has decided to take Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland to the European Court of Justice for not implementing the obligatory relocation scheme.

This leads us to the biggest clue of 2018: the rule of law in Hungary and Poland. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for a “freedom fight against Brussels plan to resettle migrants in Hungarian land” years ago. All of his arguments are based on a nationalist rhetoric that he uses “to defend his people against the EU”. To a lesser extent, the Polish government does the same. Even though Tusk’s proposal hurts Juncker’s self-esteem, it shows a clear understanding of how politics work in Eastern Europe. If there weren’t any obligatory resettlement quotas, Orbán’s poison teeth would be pulled out.

Yes, he could present it as a victory he gained over Brussels, and it might also be a red flag in the eyes of German voters. But the focus could finally be switched to the respect of democracy and the rule of law. In my point of view, the real question of 2018 is not if we’ll have a European financial minister or not, nor if Merkel agrees to set up a “rainy day” fund for Eurozone countries. The real question is if the EU manages to defend its core values and principles, or will it let Hungary and Poland fall down, labelling them as useless for the future of the EU. My biggest wish for 2018 is that they wouldn’t do so.