(16 October, 2024 – EPC, Brussels)
Speakers:
- Almut Möller, Director for European and Global Affairs and Head of the Europe in the World Programme, European Policy Centre;
- Christian Hanelt, Senior Expert Europe, Neighbourhood and the Middle East, Bertelsmann Stiftung;
- Adnan Tabatabai, Co-founder and CEO, Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO);
- Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Analyst, Control Risks
Moderator:
- Mihai Chihaia, Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre
The purpose of this conference organized by EPC was to review recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the war in Gaza, and Iranian missile attacks on Israel. The speakers explored possibilities for de-escalation and discussed the roles that the European Union, the United States, and other international actors could play in resolving the conflicts.
Analysis of regional escalation
First, Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Analyst at Control Risks, provided an overview of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. She noted that the conflict had intensified significantly in recent months. According to her, the war between Israel and groups supported by Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, could soon turn into a full-scale regional conflict. To illustrate, she highlighted the October 1st Iranian missile attack on Israeli military targets, which marked a shift in the longstanding “rules of engagement”. This direct attack from Iran on Israel, in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah figures, indicated a change from the previous pattern of indirect confrontations. Adnan Tabatabai, co-founder of the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO), expanded on this analysis, explaining that while Iran does not want a large-scale war, it is prepared to respond strongly if its territory is attacked. According to him, Iran is aware of its military inferiority compared to Israel and the United States, but that does not prevent its leaders from preparing for retaliation. Tabatabai cited the evolving Iranian military doctrine, which now includes a “counter-escalation” strategy: any new Israeli attack on Iranian targets could trigger a much larger response than previous strikes. He mentioned the possibility of Iran using a large number of missiles to overwhelm Israeli defence systems, a scenario that could spiral out of control.
On the Gaza front, Aniseh Bassiri painted a similarly difficult picture. A ceasefire in Gaza seems increasingly unlikely, partly due to the worsening humanitarian situation. Israeli bombings have further deteriorated the conditions in the strip, and despite the U.S. urging Israel to improve humanitarian aid access in Gaza, there is little sign that Israel is willing to negotiate a truce. Israel, engaged on multiple fronts, especially against Hezbollah in Lebanon, has shown no interest in diplomatic solutions and an intensification of bombing against civilians. The experts pointed out that as long as the conflict with Hezbollah continues, Gaza will remain largely sidelined by the international community.
Finally, Christian Hanelt, Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, continued by emphasizing the risks posed by Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict. He noted that the international community, especially France, is trying to reinforce the UN’s Resolution 1701 to prevent a wider conflict in southern Lebanon. France, which has troops in the UN peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL) in the region, plays a key role in containing the Hezbollah threat. Hanelt still warned that further destabilization of Lebanon, already suffering from a severe economic crisis, could exacerbate the already terrible situation in the region.
The role of international and European actors in managing the conflicts
Christian Hanelt also addressed the role of the European Union, pointing out that the EU is currently divided over how to respond to the crisis. Some member states, like Hungary and the Czech Republic, adopt a more pro-Israel stance, while others, such as Ireland and Spain, support the recognition of a Palestinian state. This internal dissonance makes it difficult for the EU to adopt a coherent and proactive position in the region. Despite these divisions, the EU is attempting to remain diplomatically active. Almut Möller, Director for European and Global Affairs at the EPC, explained that the EU is in a period of transformation, seeking to increase its role in security and defence. She argued that the war in Ukraine has forced Europe to focus on its own defence capabilities, which could eventually influence its ability to intervene more effectively in the Middle East. She also noted that these security efforts are still developing, and the EU must overcome its internal divisions if it wants to play a decisive role in resolving the conflicts in the Middle East. Hanelt also highlighted the importance of humanitarian aid. Despite political differences, he pointed out that there is consensus within the EU on the need to provide emergency aid to Palestinian civilians, especially in Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is more than critical (more than 40 000 Palestinians have died since the beginning of the conflict). One example of this commitment is the EU’s financial support for medical and food infrastructure in the Palestinian territories, a concrete action – but not really relevant if not followed by further actions – showing the EU’s capacity to contribute in this area despite political obstacles and discourses of governments. Almut Möller added that for the EU to play a decisive role in this dynamic, it must first overcome its internal divisions and adopt a more coherent and ambitious foreign policy approach in the Middle East.
The role of the United States was also widely discussed during the whole event. Adnan Tabatabai analyzed the potential impact of the U.S. elections on the region. A re-election of Donald Trump could lead to more aggressive measures against Iran and the re-establishment of the Trump plan, deal of the century (which allowed the colonisation of territories by Israel in Gaza and Cisjordanie) with increased pressure to secure a major deal, while a Harris presidency might open the door to more diplomatic engagement, though it would still aim to contain Iranian influence. For Iran, the challenge is to determine the best response, knowing that the U.S. administration could shift drastically in a few months. The main point is that in both scenarios, the U.S. will not stop supporting Israel.
Prospects for de-escalation; possible regional diplomacy?
Adnan Tabatabai and Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi both emphasized the role of Gulf states in managing the regional escalation. In particular, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar – are concerned about the conflict between Israel and Iran spreading to their own territories. These countries understand that a full-scale war could have disastrous consequences for their oil and gas infrastructure, as demonstrated by the 2019 attacks on Saudi installations. Tabatabai explained that since these attacks, Gulf countries have intensified their diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with Iran. He pointed to recent diplomatic visits by the Iranian Foreign Minister to several Gulf capitals, including Riyadh and Doha, where discussions focused on preventing direct escalation between Israel and Iran. This behind-the-scenes diplomacy shows that despite the tensions, efforts are being made to find a way to de-escalation but Bassiri Tabrizi warned that if Israel were to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, Iranian-backed groups might retaliate by targeting Gulf countries. This could drag Gulf states into the conflict, undermining the diplomatic progress made so far and threatening the (so-called) stability of the region.
In the final part, Christian Hanelt addressed the (very optimistic and maybe out of context) possibility of reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process despite the current situation. Although the prospects for a two-state solution seem very unlikely in the short and longer term, he stressed that many local reconciliation initiatives continue to promote peace between Israelis and Palestinians and that these grassroots efforts, while not widely visible, play an essential role in maintaining hope for a peaceful resolution.
You can watch the event here: