One day after the watershed announcement of Donald Trump’s victory of the US presidential elections, how could we predict the future and the evolution of the transatlantic affairs? The European Policy Centre invited a panel of specialists to discuss about the impact on this unexpected result. The panel was composed of Marietje Schaake (MEP and Vice Chair of the Delegation for relations with the United States), Ian Lesser (Senior Director, Foreign and Security Policy; Executive Director, Transatlantic Centre, German Marshall Fund of the US), Teri Schultz (Freelance U.S journalist), and Giovanni Grevi (Senior Fellow of the European Policy Centre). The debate was monitored by Janis A. Emmanouillidis, Director of Studies from European Policy Centre.
Devastating, afraid, awful, threat, uncertainty the tone was set. The unexpected victory of Donald Trump is not good news for progressive politics. Indeed, Trump’s political agenda is “in opposition to everything President Obama stands for” and his victory is a representation of the population’s polarisation. The era after Obama is uncertain and so are world affairs.
First of all, according to Marietje Schaake, it is important to not simplify the aftermath of the elections according to who voted with which motivation: Is it about fear? Anger? Lack of choice? Alternative to status quo as in 2008 with the great change that Obama promised. Before analysing the situation we need to have a clear head.
What do we know about elected president Trump’s proposal? Not much except that he did not express a strong willingness for multilateral entanglements or agreements and does not value the EU as a relevant partner. Therefore the idea of the TTIP has strong chance to shrink or to disappear. Concerning the other treaties such as the Iran deal, COP21 and the NATO have less effect of the EU than on the United States. According to Giovanni Grevi, Trump is a tough negotiator and he often declared that the United States will get along with anybody that will get along with the United States. But at the end of the day in foreign politics negotiations you have to come to compromise and it does not seem that Donald Trump is incline to do that.
Mr Trump blamed the elites and his victory does not only show anger against elites, but also anger against elite projects, says Ian Less.
Giovanni Grevi recalls that populism is mainstream even though the populist parties say the opposite. Those parties influence each other in creating a strong community between nationalist parties and bringing support during their respective campaigns.
As a journalist, Terry Schultz is scared of Donald Trump’s low consideration to press freedom. “The statements he made were awful. Being elected means that it become ok to say it and this is scary”. In the United States the journalists acknowledge a lack of concern for the information and the facts checking. Therefore many people do not feel heard when journalists give them the chance to express their opinion.
At the end it is about taking in account the success or the results. How many more wake-up calls do we need?