At the beginning of the 2019-2024 cycle, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen granted the Neighbourhood and Enlargement portfolio to Hungarian Commissioner-designate Olivér Várhelyi, and the European Parliament approved. Little did anyone know how important this portfolio would become, until a cruel twist of fate – or more precisely, of Russian President Vladimir Putin – turned the world upside down and unpredictably revived the European Union’s stagnant enlargement process: Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. But what happened in the field of enlargement during the last cycle, and can we actually expect new Member States to join between 2024 and 2029?
A geopolitical necessity
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created an either/or situation for the countries of the Eastern Partnership and the Western Balkans. Either staying vulnerable to threats like Russia’s attack or taking actual steps towards the safety the European Union can offer them. Not so surprisingly, most of them chose the second option. Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022, involuntarily giving a brand new impetus to the enlargement process. Georgia and Moldova did the same merely a month later. Ukraine and Moldova became candidates in June 2022 and the membership negotiations with them opened in June 2024. Bosnia and Herzegovina – that applied in 2016 – also became a candidate in December 2022, followed by Georgia a year later. The membership negotiations opened with Noth Macedonia – that applied in 2004 and has been candidate since 2005 – in March 2022, and with Albania – that applied in 2009 and has been candidate since 2014 – only four months later.
Furthermore, two other significant developments happened on the 8th of November 2023. The European Commission not only adopted the 2023 Enlargement package, but also a new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. While the Enlargement package gave a comprehensive evaluation on the progress candidates had made so far on their way to accession, the Growth Plan aimed at accelerating the process based on four pillars: the single market, the Common Regional Market, fundamental reforms and financial assistance. For the financial pillar, the European Union set up a new instrument, the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans to cover the period between 2024 and 2027, providing €2 billion in grants and €4 billion in loans.
But make no mistake, bilateral disputes among Member States and candidates did not vanish in the midst of the war. The most recent example is the case of Hungary blocking aid to Ukraine again and again, but let’s not forget about Greece and Bulgaria delaying accession talks with North Macedonia, and Greece threatening to veto Albania’s accession either. France also blocked the opening of negotiations with these two countries back in 2019, even though it was more about French President Emmanuel Macron’s concerns over the functioning of the enlargement process and the decision-making in the European Union, than bilateral struggles. So, even if enlargement is now really a geopolitical imperative, as long as unanimity exists, Member States can – and as they have already demonstrated, they will – still get in the way, if this is dictated by their interest.
A precarious choice
On the 17th of September 2024, Ursula von der Leyen ultimately unveiled her newly nominated team, including a Commissioner for Enlargement. Slovenian Marta Kos was born in 1965 and started her career as a Journalist at Radio Deutsche Welle in 1990. Then she worked as Foreign Correspondent of RTV Slovenia in Germany between 1993 and 1997, before becoming Director of the Government Public Affairs and Media Office as well as Government’s Spokesperson. In 1999, Kos started working as Head of the President’s Office and Head of the Public Affairs Department at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia. She went on to become Vice-President for International Affairs in 2000. After leaving the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in 2003, Kos was Director, Co-Owner and Business Coach at Gustav Kaser Training International for ten years. She served as Ambassador to Germany and Latvia between 2013 and 2017, and then to Switzerland and Lichtenstein. Kos has been self-employed since 2021, working at her own company Kos Consulting & Coaching.
Even though Marta Kos has been essentially supportive of Ukraine, some of her statements and even her professional past might cause troubles during her upcoming hearing. According to Kos, the criticism towards Russia is reasonable, but closing the doors towards the country is not. The European Parliament might not agree with this opinion, but the complaints about inappropriate management from the time she worked as Ambassador to Germany and Switzerland, and the allegations that she used to be linked to the former Yugoslavia’s secret police – which she has denied every single time – might just as well result in her rejection. Besides, deciding the fate of Commissioners-designate is one of the moments when the Parliament can demonstrate its power over the Commission, so it will definitely not miss the opportunity to do so.
A new enlargement
As much as the enlargement of the European Union seems to be more and more inevitable, especially in light of the war, one must not forget how much it depends on candidates. To join, they have to fulfil the so-called Copenhagen criteria which emphasize the assurance of democracy, human rights and the rule of law, as well as a functioning market economy, among others. Since the beginning of the war, the majority of candidates did put effort into achieving results – that is how they were able to advance the enlargement process –, but they still have substantial work to do. Although Russia’s war might have overshadowed some priorities, the European Union will make no exceptions, or concessions for that matter. Solidarity with Ukraine is vital, but paying attention to other candidates who make progress and keeping the enlargement a merit-based process is equally important. The fundamentals cluster – opening first and closing last – and the implementation of the European Union acquis will stay at the core of the process, whether candidates like it or not.
But not only candidates have to prove themselves; the European Union also has to be ready to welcome new Member States, and for that, the organisation would need a reform. A Franco-German expert group elaborated the idea in their report, Sailing on High Seas: Reforming and Enlarging the EU for the 21st Century, published on the 18th of September 2023. The European Parliament then adopted an extensive resolution on proposals for the amendment of the Treaties of the European Union on the 22nd of November 2023. The most prominent proposals cover institutional reforms, competences and the rule of law. As mentioned earlier, unanimity seems to be one of the most pressing issues, but the realistic chances of Member States giving up their right of veto – with the help of which they can assert their national interest all while fundamentally influencing certain European processes such as the enlargement – are rather low.
In short, the European Union’s enlargement process has been accelerated at an unexpected pace by Russia’s war in Ukraine, but that does not mean that we can expect a new round of enlargement soon. Fulfilling the membership criteria will not be smooth. However, the reform of the European Union appears to be even more complicated.