(17 October, 2024 – EPC, Brussels)
Speakers:
- Juha Jokela, Programme Director, European Union and Strategic Competition, Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Richard G. Whitman, Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent
Moderator:
- Almut Möller, Director for European and Global Affairs and Head of Programme, European Policy Centre
Almut Möller opened the panel – the first one in a series of policy dialogues organized by EPC – with the aim to help the audience better understand how a rapprochement could look like in the future between the EU and the UK in the field of security and defence.
Richard G. Whitman assumed that where we are after the early 2024 UK general election is rather interesting. He wanted to underline the high degree of continuity regarding the broader foreign policy which is mainly due to the war raging in Ukraine and the Middle East inherited by the new government. The ambitious plan of the Labour government is seemingly to author the relationship with the EU, for example through the proposition of a security pact. Whitman sees a more sensible thinking on the part of the UK about how the EU fits in the European security order, which leads to the conclusion that a developed and well-working relationship is needed with the organisation.
Whitman also touched upon the campaign of the Labour party which was about closing down the relationship with the EU. But in long-term politics, drawing red lines makes no sense, and as the Labour party is much more pro-EU, the Prime Minister is expected to alter his policy sooner or later. It will depend on his level of ambition, but also on how Brussels puts the UK in a position to make decisions. The UK has always felt more comfortable with the Atlantic Alliance and NATO, that is why the 2024 US Presidential election will be crucial as a Trump presidency – which would be a huge foreign and security policy challenge – might come at the cost of EU relations. The Labour government is also enthusiastic about what a colleague of Whitman referred to as ‘promiscuous bilateralism’ with European states. Though, the main concern might be the alternative found through Brexit: the G7. The ‘great unexpected’ for Whitman, as it turned out to be a place where the UK can actually feel relevant.
Juha Jokela highlighted that the Commission put an emphasis on security and defence, this is the glue that holds together different portfolios. The question is whether the UK is a strategic competitor or partner to the EU. In European security, it is surely the latter, but the broader partnership is questionable. Nevertheless, the new government is seen in the EU as fresh air, finally bringing pragmatic relations. Although it is not clear to what extent the EU has political energy and capacity to build those relations. Its agenda is full of challenges and threats which might leave little room for investing in the UK. But finding policy files with low hanging fruits to achieve could be a strategy. The new government refocused on the European Commission as the key interlocutor, which Whitman considered as a clever move, because negotiating a position with the twenty-seven Member States is a difficult task. There are high expectations regarding the European Defence Industrial Base, and using the EU to build up European defence is certainly among the priorities of the UK, especially since the organisation has many tools to boost preparedness and resilience too.
The advantages of deepening the relations are evident, but the concern arises: could it be yet another kind of disappointment? The EU is quite occupied with its internal processes, so to what extent would it be able to deal with the UK? This time, Jokela tends to be more positive about NATO. He expressed how Finland joining also shed light on the complementary nature of the EU and NATO. Having the UK in the discussion about Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine would be an asset to smooth some of the dividing lines. Nearing the US presidential election, providing a bridge in the transatlantic relations between Europe and Washington also makes the UK a key player.
Whitman emphasized the need to avoid the danger of disappointment too. A roadmap might be needed for that on how the EU and the UK can talk about foreign policy, how to break out and go beyond. There is a danger to lose ambition, that is why we should keep in mind that what we all have to do now is European security. We need to think more clearly about an alliance, and we actually have a strong and clear purpose to help that: Ukraine. According to Whitman, we should quickly move towards a declaration with a high level of ambition and put a time frame on it. He believes that the UK could be warmer to the EU-NATO relationship and do more to ease barriers.
Whitman underlined that the European Defence Industrial Strategy makes it hard to include the UK as it is closely framed to the Single Market. Part of the solution would be to work with Ukraine and solve practical problems. He emphasized the strong coincidence between the preoccupations of the EU and the UK, but working together would require political leadership too. As for now, the UK thinks of the relations with the EU as foreign policy, not as a special relationship, so changing the frame of reference might also be a good step.
Jokela mentioned the European Defence Industrial Strategy as well, adding that the new UK government has spotted potential structural changes, regulations proposed by the Commission which also raise the question about the arrangement of the EU and the UK markets. He reminded that the UK is already participating in many EU defence projects and hopes that the political capital will be invested to go further. But we are in the early stages of the new cycle, and we do not know what the US policy will look like after the elections. Nonetheless, he underlined that we have the strongest Commission president we have seen for a long time.
Whitman expressed that the US makes the geopolitical weather for Europe, and the UK have a shared set of concerns with the EU about the Presidential election. He assumed that it would have been better to have more time between the EU and US elections, but added that in one way or another, either Harris herself or Trump winning will encourage us to work together.
You can watch the event here: