The European Policy Centre organised a debate on the potential outcome and perspectives of Greek elections.
Professor Pagoulatos as the speaker of yesterday’s event explored the likelihood and consequences of the potential outcome in the run-up to elections in Greece on January 25th.
He referred to Syriza which is leading the polls with a rate of 3-7% before New Democracy – a difference which is difficult to be reversed- and underlined that Syriza will probably receive the most votes. It will remain committed to the EU and Eurozone, though. There is no will among Syriza to exit the euro. According to him, Syriza is leading the polls because of the social-economic crisis which radicalised Greece, the austerity policies, the fiscal consolidation and the mistake made by Samaras’ government abandoning the momentum of reforms.
On the aspect of the radicalisation of the Greek society Pagoulatos characterized Syriza as a populist response to the problem. Although, Syriza is likely to win the elections despite of its internal problems – the differences between the pro-European part and the left wing part – but there is major probability that it will need coalition partners. If Syriza wins, it will need a political continuity. Subsequently, as Syriza will be likely leading the charge to bring down the government, there will be four potential post-election scenarios:
- Syriza single-party majority government or Syriza-led coalition government with anti-austerity parties
- Syriza-led coalition government with pro-austerity parties or Syriza minority government
- New Democracy government or ND-led coalition government
- No government is formed
Furthermore, the last scenario would mean new elections and destabilization of the Greek economy and society. As Syriza leading the polls, it should start thinking of the difficulties that will face namely: the anxiety of the depositors, continuity of reforms, maintaining the liquidity provision in the Eurosystem and the foreign policy continuity, while it should avoid putting the public debt in the front which provokes animosity.
By concluding, Professor Pagoulatos gave low probability to a Grexit, highlighting that it would be catastrophic for Greece and for the European creditors.