(July 11, 2024 – Martens Centre, Brussels)
Speakers:
- Tim Bale, Professor, Queen Mary University
- Jannike Wachowiak, Researcher, UK in a Changing Europe
- Luigi Scazzieri, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Reform
Moderator:
- Eoin Drea, Senior Research Officer, Martens Centre
Tomi Huhtanen, Executive Director at Martens Centre gave the introductory remarks recalling 2019 when everyone estimated that the EU-UK relations would be one of the key issues on the agenda due to Brexit. But then, starting with Covid, one crisis followed another, which changed everything. It has become clear however, that Brexit was not a success story, which reduced the probability of another exit. The issue is that the reconstruction of EU-UK relations was not really discussed among all these crises, even if the war in Ukraine altered the dynamics for the better. After the 2024 UK general elections, the new Labour government made it obvious that they do not want to return to the EU or the single market, but they seem to seek better relations with Europe. The question is what the ways are forward then.
Tim Bale declared that these elections were a triumph for the centre left and assured that Labour’s position is not as fragile as people might think. Among the obvious reasons why the conservatives lost the elections, he mentioned the state of the economy and the national health system. Brexit has caused a lot of chaos in the UK which had five Prime Ministers in eight years, from Theresa May through Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak to Keir Starmer. These elections signify a visible turning point for the country.
Jannike Wachowiak mentioned that the Labour election campaign did not really include the EU, so even though the overall direction is clear, there is a lack of detail. One thing is for sure, the UK would like to be a leading player in Europe. The main focus will be on the security partnership and the negotiation of better trading conditions with the EU. Rebuilding trust with Germany, France, Ireland and Poland is essential. While the security dimension is an area of mutual interest, trade will be a more complicated issue, as the UK will have to wait for the European Commission, due to it being an EU competency. Besides, the EU might have other pressing priorities as well. The UK will have to offer something in return which could be youth mobility. The relations have the potential to become warmer, but it will be hard work.
Luigi Scazzieri stated that the fundamentals for conservatives were unfavourable, and Rishi Sunak probably thought they would only become worse. According to Scazzieri, the initial focus will be security, because this is the missing puzzle piece with the EU. Structures for regular consultation and semi-regular participation in the Foreign Affairs Council could be set up, and the UK might participate in common security and defence policy missions, while also having closer ties with EU home affairs agencies. Even if the EU institutions are worried about the UK bypassing the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, the offer from the UK is genuine. A new binding agreement might be reached by the end of the Polish Presidency.
Bale stressed that Brexit backfired and that is why the parties did not really mention it in their manifestos. To fulfil expectations from the public, Labour has to get growth going, which is not only a pressure from businesses, but Labour members too. Even though Brexit is now widely considered as a mistake, the support for rejoining the EU has yet to reach a majority. But more open-minded people coming to the electorate might shift things. As for now, growth is essential, but it might not come as fast as Labour would need it.
Wachowiak addressed the possibility of liberal democrats and greens becoming more vocal, and even ask Labour to revisit the red lines. She wondered how the liberal democrats might position themselves and reminded us that their manifesto was more detailed on the EU too which, paired with them being more vocal, could cause a challenge for Labour. She agreed with Bale that the pressure which used to come from the relations with the EU, will now come from another direction, and completed that list with the opposition.
Scazzieri emphasized that social democracy on 1% growth is not sustainable. But as Labour has presented itself as a serious party that wants to reestablish trust in politics, they might actually be able to keep the majority of their votes despite a disappointing economy and growth. At least, Scazzieri expects another term for the Labour government. He said that the new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer is very pragmatic, so it would not be surprising if the red lines became pink over time. On the other hand, Donald Trump becoming President once again could pose a real challenge as the UK might feel quite squeezed between the US and the EU.
Bale added that a lot will depend on the Labour government, if they can be strategic enough to ignore the Tory-supporting press. Talking about the success of Reform UK, he assumes that it hugely relied on Nigel Farage’s charisma and the hostility to immigration. Bale admitted that the conservatives have also adopted a populist tone in many issues and might drift even further. He wondered if it is already too late for them to get back to the centre-right. In a survey, where the question was whether the conservatives should merge with Reform UK, 48% answered no, but 47% replied yes, which already showcases an appetite for that.
Wachowiak underlined that the conservatives’ decision will largely depend on who wins the leadership contest within the party, and how Farage is going to act in the Parliament. Bale agreed, declaring that the European Parliament is much more moderate than the national one, and Farage might not be so successful in an arena where he is not only talked and shouted over, but also despised. Another thing is that as an MP, he will have to make a declaration of interest, therefore people are going to find out a lot about Farage and more precisely where he got his revenues from, which will probably not help him as much as he might think.