(July 8, 2024 – EPC, Brussels)
Speakers:
- Élise Bernard, Head of Studies, Robert Schuman Foundation
- Marc-Olivier Padis, Director of Studies, Terra Nova
- Sophie Dupuy, EU Political Reporter, Contexte
Moderator:
- Eric Maurice, Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre
The 2024 French legislative elections have significantly reshaped the country’s political landscape, leading to unexpected outcomes. With the Rassemblement National (RN) failing to secure an anticipated majority and the emergence of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) as the leading party, the political dynamics have become more complex and fragmented, an unexpected turn of events for Macron, leading to major difficulties in forming a stable government.
Surprise election results
The results of the 2024 French legislative elections surprised many observers. Marc-Olivier Padis, Director of Studies at Terra Nova, noted that contrary to predictions, the Rassemblement National (RN) did not achieve an absolute majority. The RN won 89 seats, far short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Instead, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) emerged as the leading party, a major surprise for Macron’s supporters. Negotiations among candidates helped reduce the number of races to three candidates, facilitating the formation of republican fronts to block the far-right. For instance, former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne was re-elected thanks to the support from left-wing voters, despite protests against her pension reform. These results illustrate the complexity and unpredictability of the current French political landscape.
With the National Assembly divided into three major blocs – Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), the centrist coalition Ensemble, and the Rassemblement National – forming a stable government is particularly challenging. Marc-Olivier Padis explained that this parliamentary fragmentation makes the formation of a cohesive majority nearly impossible. According to the speakers, the President might be forced to choose a moderate figure from the center-right or center-left to form a coalition. Figures such as Xavier Bertrand or Laurent Berger were mentioned by the panel as potential options to gather broader consensus. This parliamentary deadlock highlights the complexity of governance in France and the need for political compromises in a country where the compromise is not in the political DNA. Notably, since the elections, France has been experiencing a democratic crisis, with the President refusing to appoint a Prime Minister from the ranks of the Nouveau Front Populaire, despite it being the leading party.
Implications for France
The loss of the parliamentary majority by Macron’s party represents a dramatic change in the political dynamics in France. Élise Bernard, Director of Studies at the Robert Schuman Foundation, noted that although President Emmanuel Macron’s legal position remains unchanged, his ability to promote his liberal ideas is now limited. This forces him to focus on strengthening France within Europe, rather than on controversial internal reforms. Pro-European groups within the Nouveau Front Populaire are likely to support Macron’s European policies, such as the European Green Deal and solidarity with Ukraine. By turning towards Europe, Macron hopes to bolster his position and find common ground with other moderate parties.
The cohesion between the President and the Prime Minister becomes crucial in this fragmented political context. The possibility of cohabitation, where the President and Prime Minister come from different political parties, could significantly influence national policies. Such a configuration might force Macron to adopt a more conciliatory and moderate approach. For instance, Macron wants a coalition to be formed without the most radical elements of the left (La France Insoumise), allowing for more centrist and pragmatic governance, even if they win.
Implications for the European Union
The political situation in France has direct repercussions on the European Union. Sophie Dupuy, EU Political Reporter at Contexte, explained that the RN might join the new “Patriots of Europe” group created by Viktor Orban. Shortly after the elections, Jordan Bardella announced that the RN had joined this group. With 30 MEPs, the RN could attempt to block certain European policies by forming majorities with other right-wing and far-right groups. Issues such as the continuation of the European Green Deal could be particularly affected by this new configuration.
As explained by the speakers, for Emmanuel Macron, securing the support of pro-European groups is essential to advance his political initiatives at the EU level. European cooperation is crucial, and the presence of many pro-European groups in the new parliamentary configuration could facilitate some of his policies. For example, support for Ukraine and the European Green Deal are priorities that could see increased cooperation thanks to the backing of pro-European MEPs.
The unexpected dissolution of the National Assembly by Macron and the new parliamentary configuration will also have implications for EU defense and security policies. Eric Maurice, Policy Analyst at European Policy Centre, highlighted that the support for NATO and Ukraine remains a priority for Macron. However, parliamentary fragmentation could complicate the implementation of these policies. European cooperation will be essential to strengthen collective security and address current geopolitical challenges. The new parliamentary configuration, with a significant presence of pro-European groups, could help overcome these challenges and maintain a strong position within NATO and the EU.