(25 September 2024, EPC Brussels)
Speakers:
- Ricardo Borges de Castro, Visiting Scholar, College of Europe;
- Frances Burwell, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council & Senior Director, McLarty Associates;
- João Vale de Almeida, Former Ambassador of the European Union to the United States
Moderator:
- Iana Maisuradze, Junior Policy Analyst, Europe in the World programme, European Policy Centre
The purpose of this conference organized by the EPC was to highlight the results of the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, particularly how the outcome of the election could redefine not only the future of the American liberal system but also transatlantic relations and the role of the United States in European security. This event was part of a broader series of analyses aimed at shedding light on the potential outcomes of the U.S. elections concerning the political, economic, and security implications for Europe and the world.
Domestic battle and global repercussions
According to Frances Burwell, Joe Biden’s withdrawal as the Democratic candidate following his June 27 debate surprised many observers. Despite his respect within the party, Biden was unable to effectively counter Trump. He then passed the baton to Kamala Harris, who quickly unified the party. In just three days, Harris raised funds and consolidated her support. Burwell also noted that even with this momentum, the polls remain tight: while Harris has gained popularity (Harris’s overall favorability has gained 16 percentage points in NBC’s polling compared to before she entered the presidential race in July), key swing states (such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia) remain highly contested, making it difficult to predict a winner. On the other hand, Trump continues to be seen as more reliable on economic issues, which remains one of his key strengths.
João Vale de Almeida provided a European perspective on the election. In Europe, Biden’s withdrawal brought some relief, especially after the debate, where the threat of a Trump re-election seemed likely. However, Almeida warned that European enthusiasm for Harris remains cautious, as Burwell also pointed out, the election outcome is still uncertain. Using the example of rising populism in France and Germany, Almeida illustrated how the U.S. election could reinforce similar political trends in Europe. According to him, if Trump is re-elected, populist forces in Europe, which often share anti-Atlanticist views, could be strengthened. In contrast, Harris’s election would offer more stability for Washington’s European allies.
Security, defense, and foreign policy
A central theme of this conference was the future of the transatlantic alliance. Ricardo Borges de Castro explained that regardless of who is elected, the transatlantic bond will remain crucial. He however warned the public of the possibility that the United States could become more isolated. Under Trump, a reduction in American engagement in Europe can be expected, while under Harris, there would be continued support for NATO and Europe. For instance, Harris emphasized the importance of alliances and reaffirmed constant support for Ukraine, in clear opposition to Trump’s more uncertain stance. Almeida supported this view, explaining that the EU must be ready to adjust based on the evolving relationship with Washington. If Harris is elected, he expects the transatlantic security dialogue to continue constructively. In the event of a Trump victory, Europe would face a more pronounced disregard for multilateral commitments, especially within NATO. Almeida used Trump’s “transactional” approach as an example, where European states might be asked to contribute more to their own defense.
Ricardo Borges de Castro raised the issue of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, a point of divergence between the two candidates. Harris has strongly supported alliances with Europeans and backing for Ukraine as key elements of U.S. foreign policy, but she hasn’t ruled out a negotiated settlement of the conflict if the right conditions are met. Trump, on the other hand, declared that he would end the war within 24 hours. This statement drew criticism, especially from Burwell, who pointed out that Trump tends to overestimate his negotiating abilities with autocrats. Burwell questioned what Trump might be willing to concede to Putin in order to reach a quick agreement, noting that this could come at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Economic challenges and protectionism
João Vale de Almeida and Frances Burwell both stressed the economic challenges that persist between the EU and the U.S. Almeida pointed out that even if Harris wins the election, protectionist tendencies will remain strong on both sides of the Atlantic. Harris has promised to encourage the relocation of American industries, a policy that Trump also advocated with his famous slogan “America First”. The EU, meanwhile, is also facing internal pressure to protect its industries amid growing global competition. Burwell explained that if Trump is re-elected, there could be a hardening of trade policies, with new tariffs imposed on European products. For instance, during his previous term, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, which caused significant economic consequences in Europe. While Harris is likely to adopt a more diplomatic approach, she could still enforce protectionist policies, particularly in sensitive areas like green technologies and critical industries.
Almeida and Borges de Castro highlighted the growing competition between the EU and the U.S. in the technology and industrial sectors. Almeida expressed concerns about diverging regulations, particularly concerning technology and environmental standards. For example disagreements over data use and the regulation of tech giants are areas where European and American interests often clash. Borges de Castro also emphasized the technological rivalry with China, a major issue for both candidates. While Trump and Harris would address it differently, they are likely to pressure Europe to follow the U.S.’s hardline stance toward China, which could create tensions within the EU, especially with states more open to economic partnerships with Beijing.