(November 21, 2024 – EUISS, Brussels)
Speakers:
- Giuseppe Spatafora – Associate Analyst for Transatlantic Relations
- Tim Rühlig – Senior Analyst for Global China
- Bojana Zorić – Associate Analyst for the Western Balkans
- Joris Teer – Associate Analyst on Economic Security and Technology
The event organized by EUISS explored the implications of Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States for the EU’s foreign and security policies. Speakers analyzed the challenges and opportunities posed by this – not so new – transatlantic dynamic, focusing on key issues such as defence relations, rivalry with China, economic security, and tensions in the Western Balkans.
Transatlantic relations and challenges for EU defence policy
At the beginning of the event, Giuseppe Spatafora highlighted the significant consequences Trump’s re-election could have for transatlantic relations. Guided by the “America First” approach, Trump’s skepticism toward traditional alliances, including NATO, is well documented. His push to reduce U.S. involvement in Europe could lead to disengagement in critical areas, such as Ukraine’s defence. Spatafora noted that Trump plans to push for a swift resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, potentially pressuring Kyiv into accepting disadvantageous terms. Such a scenario would place the EU under greater pressure to fill the gap left by diminished American support. Spatafora also addressed the potential for NATO’s role to shift, as Trump may condition U.S. support on substantial increases in defence spending by European allies. Additionally, he warned of the possibility of U.S. military resources being redirected to the Indo-Pacific, leaving Europe exposed to vulnerabilities that Russia could exploit. These challenges demand immediate action from the EU, including boosting defence budgets, developing competitive European defense industries, and strengthening collaboration with partners like the UK.
Adding to this discussion, Joris Teer emphasized that the EU’s ability to fill such gaps is hindered by its declining industrial capacity in key defence and manufacturing sectors. He pointed out that China and Russia dominate critical resources and production capabilities, such as rare earths and ammunition, which are essential for military and technological resilience. Teer stressed the need for a transatlantic industrial pact that prioritizes the development of secure supply chains and manufacturing capacities within trusted countries, such as the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. Without such measures, Europe risks falling behind in its ability to ensure both economic and military security.
China, transatlantic strategy, and economic risks
Tim Rühlig, an analyst specializing in China, explored the implications of a second Trump term for transatlantic relations in the context of China’s rising global influence. Rühlig highlighted the bipartisan consensus in Washington, which views China as an existential threat. However, Trump’s approach remains contradictory. While criticizing China for trade imbalances and technological advancements, he often leans on transactional diplomacy that could result in rapid bilateral deals, potentially at the expense of European allies. Rühlig warned that Trump might use the EU as leverage to increase U.S. bargaining power against China, only to finalize deals benefiting the U.S. without consulting Europe. He also pointed out that heightened pressure on China could have unintended negative consequences for Europe, including restrictions on sensitive technology exports and disruptions in supply chains.
Despite these risks, Rühlig identified areas of cooperation where EU and U.S. interests align, particularly on trade, technology, and Taiwan. Both sides share concerns over China’s industrial overcapacity and the leakage of critical technologies to its military. To address these challenges, he encouraged the EU to strengthen partnerships with the U.S. in initiatives like economic security standards and supply chain resilience while maintaining a unified and proactive stance to ensure credibility in Washington’s eyes.
The Western Balkans: Regional stability and rising nationalism
Bojana Zorić, an expert on the Western Balkans, focused her analysis on the region, where the U.S. has historically played a key role in crisis management. She cited major interventions like the 1995 Dayton Accords and NATO’s 1999 intervention in Kosovo. However, Zorić expressed concern that under Trump, the Western Balkans might be deprioritized in favor of regions like the Indo-Pacific, leaving space for destabilizing forces to grow. She emphasized the increasing danger of nationalist rhetoric, particularly in Serbia. Zorić referenced the 2023 Serbian parliamentary declaration advocating for expansionist ambitions, reminiscent of Russia’s “Russian World” concept. This rhetoric, she noted, threatens the sovereignty of neighbors like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo and could be amplified by Trump administration figures such as Richard Grenell, known for his pro-Serbia stance. To counter these risks, Zorić suggested several measures. She underscored the need for the EU to tie financial support to clear progress in democratic governance and regional cooperation. She also called for swift, coordinated responses to destabilizing actions, such as targeted sanctions on those fueling nationalist tensions. Lastly, Zorić highlighted the EU’s central role in maintaining regional stability through enhanced missions like KFOR and EUFOR, while fostering close collaboration with international partners such as the UK.